Weak first 3 weeks, sharp revival during Navratri
According to Vahan registration data, total vehicle registrations as of early October were ~1.51 million units, down ~13.28% from ~1.74 million in the same period last year.
- The early part of September saw subdued consumer activity: many buyers delayed decisions, waiting for festive season offers or clarity on new GST rates.
- But from ~22 September onwards (start of Navratri and the effective date for the GST cut), demand surged, reviving hopes for better monthly totals.
Thus, the month exhibits a “U-shaped” pattern: weak start, strong finish driven by festival factors and tax stimulus.
GST “2.0” / Tax Cuts as a Major Trigger
- * The government’s revised GST rates (effective ~22 September) reduced tax burdens on many vehicle categories, making certain models more affordable.
- Dealer bodies and automakers anticipated the tax cuts would revive consumption in the festive season.
- The timing of the cut, aligned with the early Navratri days, amplified its impact: many customers timed their purchase decisions to coincide with the new rates.
OEM / Brand Performance Highlights
- Hyundai Motor India saw ~10% year-on-year growth in September, with total sales reaching 70,347 units.
- Tata Motors posted a record September, with ~60,907 passenger vehicles sold — ~47% YoY growth — attributed largely to GST cuts and Navratri demand.
- Mahindra benefited especially in the SUV segment: SUV sales to dealers rose ~10% YoY, recovering from prior declines, aided by the tax cut on big engines.
- Maruti Suzuki projected that Navratri 2025 sales would double over the previous year (from ~85,000 to ~170,000+ for the period).
- On Navratri’s first day itself, automakers like Maruti, Tata, Hyundai recorded record bookings/deliveries.
Anuj Guglani, CEO, World Auto Forum commented, ‘We need to look beyond the Navratri Period Sales. The Sales figures of H1 2025 are out and the Sales has been flat wrt H1 2024. Interestingly for most car makers, the wholesale numbers in Aug exceeded the sept numbers.’
He further added, ‘GST2.0 surely turbocharged the Festive period. How the momentum is sustained all the way till December end is to be seen.’
Deep Dive: The Navratri Period
Because Navratri falls in the tail end of September (and spills into early October), its effects are critical to interpreting the month’s results.
Scale & Growth
- During the first 8 days of Navratri (approx. Sept 23 onwards), Maruti retailed ~165,000 units — its highest in a decade — whereas last year’s tally was ~85,000 units. (Business Standard)
- Enquiries during this period soared: 700,530 inquiries, 150,000 bookings (across brands).
- Tata delivered ~10,000 vehicles on Day 1 of Navratri and saw over 25,000 enquiries.
- Across the board, many OEMs and dealers reported record footfall, high conversion rates, and delivery push to leverage auspicious dates in the festival.
Thus, Navratri turned what would have been a dull month into a strong closing run, with heavy concentration of sales in those festival days.
Segment & Model Dynamics (Indicative / Observed)
While detailed public breakdowns are limited, several patterns emerge:
- SUV / large-engine vehicles benefited relatively more, especially where tax cuts were substantial (e.g. >1,500 cc engines). (Reuters)
- Entry-level / small cars & hatchbacks regained some traction due to improved affordability post-GST cut. In regions like Hyderabad, there was a marked increase in small car sales during the festival. (The Times of India)
- EVs / low-emission models also saw interest, supported by relatively lower rates (or additional incentives), though the scale is still modest relative to ICE models. (India Brand Equity Foundation)
- Many buyers timed purchases deliberately to coincide with auspicious dates (e.g. first days of Navratri, Dussehra) to take delivery, thereby compressing demand into a narrow window. (The Times of India)
Risks & Constraints During Navratri
- Logistics & delivery capacity: Given the spike in demand, ensuring vehicle deliveries, installations, registration formalities, etc., strained dealer networks and logistics chains. (The Times of India)
- Late timing of tax cut: Because the GST change was effective only from Sept 22, many buyers had already deferred purchase decisions, and some pent-up demand might have leaked into early October. (The Times of India)
- Registration lag effects: Registration data (Vahan) tends to lag actual deliveries by days, so some sales from the late-September period may get recorded in October. (ACKO Drive)
- Market saturation: The sharp spike in Navratri may not sustain post-festival, and demand may normalize or even decelerate in subsequent months, especially if monetary conditions tighten or incentives fade.
Interpretation & Takeaways
- Navratri as the “make or break” window
For September 2025, Navratri was the pivotal period. Without the festival boost (and aligned tax cuts), the month would likely have ended in substantial year-on-year decline. The strong finish reflects that a lot of demand was backloaded into this festive window. - Policy timing matters
The alignment of GST rate cuts with the festive period magnified consumer response. Buyers delayed purchases until the new tax regime kicked in, then rushed in during the auspicious days. - Concentration risk & volatility
Such festival-driven spikes can lead to volatility in monthly figures. OEMs and dealers must ensure operational readiness (inventory, logistics, registration support) to capture the upside and avoid delivery bottlenecks. - Sustainability concerns
Whether this festive bump translates into a sustained recovery will depend on macro conditions (interest rates, consumer income growth), continuing incentives, and how well OEMs capitalize on backlogs and brand pull. - Segmentation opportunity
The relative uptick in SUVs, EVs, and affordable small cars suggests OEMs should calibrate portfolios and incentive schemes to maximize festive demand. Also a chance for cross/up-sell (accessories, financing, service bundles).
Source: worldautoforum.com
