Summary
- Exports to reach 600,000-775,000T in July – trade, Vortexa
- NW Europe prices about $65/T higher than Asia this month – LSEG data
- July LR2 shipping costs fall to $3.75 million from $4.4 million in June – SSY Tanker data
SINGAPORE, (Reuters) – Jet fuel exports from South Korea, China and Southeast Asia to Europe likely hit a multi-year high in July as traders shipped out excess regional supply to cash in on higher European prices, according to shiptracking data and industry sources.
The Asian exporters are set to ship 600,000-775,000 metric tons (4.728-6.107 million barrels) of the aviation fuel to Europe this month, data from Vortexa, three trade and shipping sources showed, mostly from China and South Korea.
Vortexa puts the volume at nearly a three-year high while trade sources said it’s the highest in five years.
Last month, northeast Asian exports to Europe were at nearly 500,000 tons.
Outflows were mostly from South Korea and China
Elevated exports to the west will continue to ease Asia’s supply glut and limit regional price weakness here.
“The arbitrage economics has been favourable till mid-July,” said Vortexa’s head of APAC analysis Ivan Mathews, although he expects exports to ease in August as arbitrage margins have narrowed.
Physical jet fuel prices in Northwest Europe were on average $65 per ton higher than in Asia , compared with $50 per ton last month, LSEG data showed.
The arbitrage has been mostly open in June and July, as Asian prices come under pressure amid ample supplies while Europe markets receive a boost from strong summer demand.
Meanwhile, the cost to ship 90,000 tons of jet fuel on LR2 tankers fell to an average $3.75 million in July from $4.4 million in June, data from shipbroker SSY showed, after the Iran-Israel conflict ended.
In Europe, the average number of daily flights for July so far is up 4% year-on-year and 3% higher than 2019 levels, data from Eurocontrol showed, underscoring robust demand.
Stockpiles of aviation fuel independently held in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub were at 745,000 tons last week, the lowest since February this year, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed.
That level is below this year’s average at 846,000 tons and 2024 weekly average of 881,000 tons.
Robust exports from China also helped. The world’s top refiner is expected to ship out more than 2.3 million tons of aviation fuel for August, similar to July, industry estimates showed.
China’s overall jet fuel and kerosene exports should remain elevated in the coming months as its top refiner Sinopec is increasing output while demand from domestic flights is plateauing, analysts from consultancy FGE said in a note.
Jet fuel exports remained the most profitable for Chinese refiners compared with other products, two China-based trade sources said.
Reporting by Trixie Yap; Editing by Florence Tan and Ronojoy Mazumdar
Source: worldautoforum.com
