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During 2024, Tesla, Ford, and Volkswagen all paused production of some EV models to let inventory stabilize. The problems that led each of these automakers to that point vary, but the reduction of inventory of the Cybertruck, F-150 Lightning, and ID.4 was helpful in preventing lots from being jammed with new and unsold vehicles. Torque News recently observed this happening at a Subaru dealership in Metro Boston. We were there to buy a Crosstrek Wilderness and saw a long row of unsold Solteras. That would not be the worst thing for a Subaru dealer, except that they were unsold 2024 model year cars, and the fancier 2026 version had already been revealed. Who wants day-old donuts?
The latest news of EV production pauses was first reported at Automotive News by respected journalist Urvaksh Karkaria. This time, it’s BMW who is slowing its roll on EVs. The article reports that “BMW, in an April 29 memo, told U.S. retailers that it will ‘postpone’ electric vehicle production in May.” BMW’s EVs are great, and we have driven the all-electric BMW i4 on track and public roads and reported it to be a fantastic vehicle. However, as good as EVs are to drive, living with them is problematic for some, and paying for them is problematic for others.
Like BMW, General Motors has also scaled back its production capacity for EVs by shifting an EV powertrain factory back to making parts for gas-powered vehicles.
EV Market Share Plateaued In America in Early 2023
EV deliveries were growing quarter by quarter until Q1 of 2023. At that point, EV market share passed 7% and then stopped increasing in any meaningful way. There have been better quarters since for EV share, but also some lower. In the second half of 2024, EV market share grew to about 8.7%. However, in the last quarter (Q1 2025), EV market share dropped back to within a half percentage point of where it was 27 months ago, to around 7.5%. In March, it was 6.8%. All of our market share data can be found at Cox Automotive, and we’ve cross-checked it with McKinsey.
What Do Professional Automotive Analysts Say About the U.S. EV Marketplace?
One of our most trusted resources of big-picture automotive market trends is Sam Fiorani of AutoForecast Solutions. He was quoted this week as saying,
“The EV market is saturated, and it doesn’t make sense to add increasingly costly EVs to a crowded market.”
The EV Price Problem In America
Electric vehicles have always cost more to produce for the U.S. market than conventional vehicles. To offset this cost disparity, the federal government created a industry-facing subsidy program called ZEV credits that some automakers (OK, it’s almost all Tesla) have used to boost revenue. In addition, there are consumer-facing subsidies via the federal income tax code. Combined, they can prop up the price of an EV by about 30%. Both of these could go away if Congress decided to cut EV subsidies.
Add to the possibility of subsidy cuts the probability that new tariffs will add to the cost of all cars, and you have a problem if you produce pricey EVs. And they are pricey. The affordable EV market in America died in 2024. The average transaction price of EVs has been rising. Cox Automotive reported recently that “In March, the average transaction price (ATP) for new electric vehicles was $59,205, showing a 3.8% increase from the previous month and a 4.4% increase from the previous year.” What does the average gas-powered compact crossover cost in America? Just $36,262.
Two Truths – More EVs Were Sold In Q1, But EV Market Share Declined
Part of the reality of the automotive content landscape is that there are proponents and activists masquerading as journalists and reporters. Following the last quarter’s drop in market share by EVs in the U.S., the activists and advocates reported that EV sales had risen. Not a false statement. They did go up a bit. As the saying goes, “rising tides lift all boats.” Q1 was a strong quarter overall for vehicle sales, and EVs were lifted by the rising tide. However, it is also true that the 7.5% market share can be translated factually to “93% of Shoppers Didn’t Buy an EV.” Another factual statement is that the 7.5% share was a decline from the prior six-month average share of 8.7%. This is how we find ourselves with manufacturers closing EV plants, pausing production, and reducing EV manufacturing capacity, despite the true statement that “More EVs sold last quarter…”
The “Other Markets Are Smarter” Fallacy
Here’s another dual-truth example. Read over the EV advocacy reporting on EVs, and you’ll get the general vibe that Americans are just uninformed and haven’t caught on to what other markets clearly see: EVs are the only way to go for the enlightened. Indeed, EVs do have greater market share in some other markets. Also true is that a supermajority of shoppers in China, Europe, the U.K., and even California opted not to buy a battery-electric vehicle in Q1 and instead chose a vehicle with some other type of powertrain.
The “It’s Only Tesla Who Is Down” Fallacy
Those who promote EVs in their content desperately want you to think that the only problem with the U.S. market is one they helped to create – lower Tesla deliveries. They are going hard against Tesla now, having become woke to the fact that its CEO has opinions and the ability to act on what he feels is in the best interests of his country. The nerve of that guy! They poo-poo the stalled U.S. EV market and highlight the surge of non-Tesla EV models. There are some pesky facts around this narrative, though. Like these:
- In Q1, Rivian saw steep declines in deliveries.
- In Q1, Mercedes-Benz saw steep declines in EV deliveries.
- In Q1, Kia saw EV delivery declines.
- In Q1, Lexus saw EV declines.
- In Q1 BMW’s Mini brand saw EV delivery declines.
So, factually, it is not “just Tesla” that is seeing outright drops in EV deliveries. It’s a big segment of the market, and deliveries of EVs from respected automakers have dropped as of the most recent data.
Early delivery data was coming in as we published this story, and Hyundai reported an 8% decline in Ioniq 5 deliveries and a 12% drop in Ioniq 6 deliveries. Yet, Hyundai reported a “Record-Breaking April” overall.
Of Course, There Is Always Some Good News
Look hard enough, and there are some bright spots in the U.S. EV market. Ford is committed to EVs, and its Mexican-made Mustang Mach-E has been doing very well. The new Canadian-made Dodge Charger Daytona R/T is a breath of fresh air in a stale market. We have reported that the Georgian-build Hyundai Ioniq 5 N is the best muscle car in America. We’ve highlighted all of these great vehicles in multiple stories.
Conclusion – 2025 Could Prove to be an Inflection Point In American Market EV Adoption
With EV market share in March dipping below that of Q1 2023, we may have already witnessed the inflection point in EV market share. Or not. Panic buying ahead of the expected vehicle import tariffs has resulted in a noticeable spike in shopper activity. If automakers give away EVs on panic-level leases, EV market share may be up in April and May. We should know by mid-year what the tariffs will bring, and after that, EV market share in America will start to become easier to predict. GM and BMW are the latest in a long list of automakers who have opted to scale back in advance of what could be a turning point for EVs.
Image of BMW’s all-electric i4 sports sedan by John Goreham.
John Goreham is a credentialed New England Motor Press Association member and expert vehicle tester. John completed an engineering program with a focus on electric vehicles, followed by two decades of work in high-tech, biopharma, and the automotive supply chain before becoming a news contributor. He is a member of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE int). In addition to his eleven years of work at Torque News, John has published thousands of articles and reviews at American news outlets. He is known for offering unfiltered opinions on vehicle topics. You can connect with John on Linkedin and follow his work on his personal X channel or on our X channel. Please note that stories carrying John’s by-line are never AI-generated, but he does employ grammar and punctuation software when proofreading and he also uses image generation tools.
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Source: torquenews.com
